CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-11-14T08:00:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-11-14T08:00ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/42713/-1
CME Note: Asymmetric halo seen with bulk to the northwest with a faint halo-shaped shock in SOHO LASCO C2/LASCO C3 with wider bulk seen to the north and northwest in STEREO A COR2A associated with an X4.0-class solar flare from AR14274 (N24W71). The eruption is characterized by brightening seen best in GOES SUVI 131 and as well in GOES SUVI 195 and GOES SUVI 284 imagery with a significant, rapid field line movement and darkening seen off the northwest limb around 2025-11-14T07:45Z. | Arrival Notes: Characterised by a sharp jump in solar wind speed from 550 km/s to initially 650 km/s and eventually (around 2025-11-16T05Z to 700 km/s), likely indicating a shock/sheath. Magnetic field also had two consecutive jumps paralleling the solar wind speed increases: initially from 4n to over 10 nT and then to 15.7 nT by 2025-11-16T05:19Z. Ion temperature has the same increases as the solar wind speed and magnetic field. Bz was mostly positive, but ater 2025-11-16T08Z there were prolonged periods of negative Bz. Flux rope likely starts after 2025-11-16T09:30Z (when there is a drop in temperature, density and solar wind speed and a smoother rotation).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-11-16T01:32Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----
Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-11-16T10:44Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 67.5%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: -39.13 hour(s)
Difference: -9.20 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-11-17T16:40Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy